2011 Canada Election Results under AV

A few weeks ago, I tried to do some analysis of how the outcome of the 2008 election might have changed under alternative vote. Today I ran the same process using data from the 2011 election (I used preliminary results where the verified results weren't yet ready) and voter second choice data (see slide 5 in the gallery section) from a slight more recent survey than the one I used in the 2008 analysis.  The Procedure and Politics blog did a similar analysis recently, I'm rerunning the most recently updated numbers using the script developed earlier.

Here were the results in this updated simulation. See the earlier 2008 analysis for a description of the methodology.

Party	Original	In AV Sim	% Seats won	% Seats AV	Popular Vote
Conservatives	166	144	0.54	0.47	0.4
NDP	103	114	0.33	0.37	0.31
Lib	34	48	0.11	0.16	0.19
BQ	4	1	0.01	0.003	0.06
Green	1	1	0.003	0.003	0.04

In this scenario, the Conservatives do not attain a majority, they get 22 fewer seats, (I'm reading slightly different reports on final numbers of seats so there may be a different of a seat or two based on validated final results).  The Liberals pick up 14 and the NDP picks up 11. The BQ drops down to a single seat. Also note that while the percentage of seats won more closely mirrors popular vote for the three largest parties in the AV case, that's not true for the BQ, their seat percentage more closely ties with popular vote in FPTP.  This is a good reminder that AV isn't necessarily of much utility to some smaller fringe parties with heavily concentrated support in relatively diverse ridings.

The ridings that changed in the calculations I ran:

District Number	Name	Winning Party	Recalculated
10004	Labrador	Consv	Lib
12009	South Shore--St. Margaret's	Consv	NDP
13007	Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe	Consv	Lib
24002	Ahuntsic	BQ	NDP
24036	Lotbinière--Chutes-de-la-Chaudière	Consv	NDP
24054	Bas-Richelieu--Nicolet--Becancour	BQ	NDP
24055	Richmond--Arthabaska	BQ	NDP
24075	Westmount--Ville-Marie	Lib	NDP
35006	Bramalea--Gore--Malton	Consv	NDP
35016	Don Valley East	Consv	Lib
35017	Don Valley West	Consv	Lib
35022	Etobicoke Centre	Consv	Lib
35023	Etobicoke--Lakeshore	Consv	Lib
35039	Kitchener--Waterloo	Consv	Lib
35043	London North Centre	Consv	Lib
35048	Mississauga East--Cooksville	Consv	Lib
35057	Nipissing--Timiskaming	Consv	Lib
35072	Pickering--Scarborough East	Consv	Lib
35079	Sault Ste. Marie	Consv	NDP
35081	Scarborough Centre	Consv	Lib
35100	Willowdale	Consv	Lib
46005	Elmwood--Transcona	Consv	NDP
46014	Winnipeg South Centre	Consv	Lib
47005	Palliser	Consv	NDP
59031	Vancouver Island North	Consv	NDP
60001	Yukon	Consv	Lib

Data is available here: link (see the "WithAV" tab for the numbers w/ the changes)